# Diesel Prices, Not Crude Oil, Are Now Driving Bond Yields as Trump Turns to Russia for Relief

> Diesel prices are climbing faster than crude oil and now track more closely with 10 year Treasury yields, prompting the Trump administration to defer the federal diesel tax and strike a deal to import Russian fuel, though analysts and new polling suggest the relief may fall short.

- Source: American Post News
- Canonical URL: https://americanpostnews.net/article/diesel-prices-not-crude-oil-are-now-driving-bond-yields-as-trump-turns-to-russia-for-relief
- Author: staff
- Section: Economy
- Published: 2026-10-11T22:39:18.742Z
- Updated: 2026-10-11T22:39:18.742Z
- Tags: Diesel Prices, Inflation, Trump Administration, Midterm Elections

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Diesel prices have pulled back slightly from a recent high but remain far above where they stood a year ago, and the gap is starting to show up in an unusual place, the bond market. The national average for diesel sat at $6.277 a gallon as of early October, according to AAA, down from a peak of $6.528 but still 71% higher than a year earlier. Crude oil, by comparison, is up 56% over the same stretch, leaving diesel roughly $2.60 a gallon more expensive than it was last year.

Amrita Sen, director at Energy Aspects, has pointed to a shift that began in May, when the yield on the 10 year Treasury note started tracking diesel prices more closely than it tracks crude oil, a correlation analysts say has not been this tight before. Diesel powers the trucking, shipping, and farm equipment that move goods through the economy, so a spike in its price feeds into the cost of nearly everything else faster than a rise in crude alone, which is why bond investors are watching the diesel market as a read on where inflation is headed.

The Trump administration has moved on two fronts to bring diesel costs down. It recently signed an executive order deferring the 24 cent per gallon federal diesel tax through the end of the year, and on October 9 it announced a deal to resume importing Russian diesel, starting with 300,000 tons, rising to 500,000 tons in November, then 1 million tons after that, with an eventual target of 3 million tons. Michael Lynch of the Energy Policy Research Foundation has been skeptical that the volumes involved will move the needle, comparing the effort to rearranging furniture on a sinking ship given how much of the current shortfall traces back to refining damage in the Middle East and Russia.

Whether any of it changes the political math is an open question. A recent Politico poll found just 10% of undecided voters said lower gas prices would make them more likely to vote Republican in the midterms, while 29% said it would make no difference and 57% said they were not sure. For a White House betting that cheaper fuel at the pump can blunt voter frustration over the cost of living, the early numbers suggest the payoff may be smaller than hoped.

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Originally published by American Post News. Free to cite with attribution and a link to https://americanpostnews.net/article/diesel-prices-not-crude-oil-are-now-driving-bond-yields-as-trump-turns-to-russia-for-relief.