Gas Prices Near 2026 Highs Test Trump and Republicans Heading Into the Midterms

The national average price for gasoline stood at roughly $4.36 a gallon in mid-October, about 39% higher than when President Trump returned to office in January 2025. The increase has landed squarely in the middle of the midterm campaign, with Republicans warning it could cost them seats just as a separate government report showed inflation accelerating to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August.

A Harris Poll conducted for The Guardian between September 24 and October 3, surveying nearly 4,000 adults, found that 96% of Republicans believe the country is in the midst of an affordability crisis, and 67% of all respondents named high grocery and gas prices as a top issue heading into the midterms. Only 28% of Republicans said they thought the economy was improving, down from 39% in February, and 40% of rural Americans described themselves as living in survival mode.

Trump has largely dismissed the concern. At the G7 summit in June he called affordability "a fake word made up by the Democrats," and he has since argued that prices are rapidly coming down under his administration. At a rally in Alaska, he said critics raise the issue "every time they want to try and get me." He has also pointed to gas prices being lower than at points during Joe Biden's presidency, a comparison fact checkers say depends heavily on which part of Biden's term is used.

White House spokesman Matthew Middleton credited what he called the administration's "aggressive, pro growth economic agenda" for the results so far. Matt Barreto, a political scientist at UCLA, said Republicans are heading into a very negative political environment on the issue, though he cautioned that turnout and the party's fundraising advantages still leave the midterm outcome far from settled.